Bounce houses a party hit but kids' injuries soar

CHICAGO (AP) — They may be a big hit at kids' birthday parties, but inflatable bounce houses can be dangerous, with the number of injuries soaring in recent years, a nationwide study found.

Kids often crowd into bounce houses, and jumping up and down can send other children flying into the air, too.

The numbers suggest 30 U.S. children a day are treated in emergency rooms for broken bones, sprains, cuts and concussions from bounce house accidents. Most involve children falling inside or out of the inflated playthings, and many children get hurt when they collide with other bouncing kids.

The number of children aged 17 and younger who got emergency-room treatment for bounce house injuries has climbed along with the popularity of bounce houses — from fewer than 1,000 in 1995 to nearly 11,000 in 2010. That's a 15-fold increase, and a doubling just since 2008.

"I was surprised by the number, especially by the rapid increase in the number of injuries," said lead author Dr. Gary Smith, director of the Center for Injury Research and Policy at Nationwide Children's Hospital in Columbus, Ohio.

Amusement parks and fairs have bounce houses, and the playthings can also be rented or purchased for home use.

Smith and colleagues analyzed national surveillance data on ER treatment for nonfatal injuries linked with bounce houses, maintained by the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. Their study was published online Monday in the journal Pediatrics.

Only about 3 percent of children were hospitalized, mostly for broken bones.

More than one-third of the injuries were in children aged 5 and younger. The safety commission recommends against letting children younger than 6 use full-size trampolines, and Smith said barring kids that young from even smaller, home-use bounce houses would make sense.

"There is no evidence that the size or location of an inflatable bouncer affects the injury risk," he said.

Other recommendations, often listed in manufacturers' instruction pamphlets, include not overloading bounce houses with too many kids and not allowing young children to bounce with much older, heavier kids or adults, said Laura Woodburn, a spokeswoman for the National Association of Amusement Ride Safety Officials.

The study didn't include deaths, but some accidents are fatal. Separate data from the product safety commission show four bounce house deaths from 2003 to 2007, all involving children striking their heads on a hard surface.

Several nonfatal accidents occurred last year when bounce houses collapsed or were lifted by high winds.

A group that issues voluntary industry standards says bounce houses should be supervised by trained operators and recommends that bouncers be prohibited from doing flips and purposefully colliding with others, the study authors noted.

Bounce house injuries are similar to those linked with trampolines, and the American Academy of Pediatrics has recommended against using trampolines at home. Policymakers should consider whether bounce houses warrant similar precautions, the authors said.

___

Online:

Pediatrics: http://www.pediatrics.org

Trade group: http://www.naarso.com

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Asian shares, euro rise on Greek debt deal

TOKYO (Reuters) - The euro hit a one-month high, commodities rose and Asian shares climbed for a seventh consecutive day on Tuesday as global lenders reached a deal on new debt targets for Greece and a political agreement on disbursing the next installment of aid.


European shares will likely track Asian peers higher, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> to open as much as 0.7 percent higher. <.l><.eu><.n/>


U.S. stock futures were up 0.3 percent, hinting at a firm Wall Street open.


After 12 hours of talks at their third meeting in as many weeks, Greece's international lenders agreed on a package of measures to cut Greek debt to 124 percent of gross domestic product by 2020, and pledged to take further steps to lower the debt below 110 percent of GDP in 2022.


Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said ministers would formally approve the release of crucial aid for debt-stricken Greece, removing uncertainty over whether Athens could avoid a near-term bankruptcy.


MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> gained 0.7 percent to a near three-week high, led by a 1 percent advance in Korean shares <.ks11> and a 0.7 percent rise in Australian shares <.axjo>. Indian shares <.bsesn> also jumped 1.2 percent.


Shanghai shares <.ssec> bucked the trend to fell 1 percent to their lowest since 2009, dragged by weakness in growth-sensitive companies.


"Overhanging the market for a little while has been these macro concerns, so progress towards sorting the situation out gives room for the market to move higher," said Phillip Weinberg, director at BestEx.


Investors' focus is likely to shift now to another major concern hanging over markets, a looming U.S. fiscal crisis.


Republicans in the U.S. Congress on Monday called on President Barack Obama to detail long-term spending cuts to help solve the country's fiscal crisis, while holding firm against the income tax rate increases for the wealthy that Democrats seek.


"Now people will start focusing on the U.S. fiscal cliff and there could be some nervousness there, particularly if it drags on," said Burrell & Co dealer Jamie Elgar of Australian shares.


The euro gained as much as about 0.3 percent to $1.3010, its highest level since October 31, in reaction to the Greek news, before paring gains to be up 0.1 percent at $1.2982.


"The euro gained but the rise is small, and it's unlikely that it will climb further, with big funds winding down their positions ahead of the year-end. Any rise will be countered by selling to cap the euro's upside," said Hiroshi Maeba, head of FX trading Japan for UBS in Tokyo.


He cautioned that the euro still faced downside risks as the latest agreement does not offer a fundamental resolution to the euro zone's debt crisis.


"While the Eurogroup has set December 13 for formal approval of the disbursement, and Germany's planned parliamentary vote later this week will be watched with interest, for markets the deal should put Greece largely on the backburner for a couple of months before it starts missing its fiscal targets again," Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac bank in Sydney, said in a note.


He doubted if the euro's short-covering will produce sustained trade beyond $1.3050/$1.3100.


Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> rose 0.5 percent, just below Monday's seven-month closing high. The benchmark has climbed more than 8 percent in two weeks as the yen has weakened on expectations of easier monetary policy with the likely election of a new government. <.t/>


WEAK USD, CHINA HELP COMMODITIES


The dollar inched up 0.2 percent against the yen to 82.22 yen. The euro rose 0.3 percent against the yen to 106.72.


Traders said some investors unwound long positions in the dollar built up in recent weeks on expectations the Bank of Japan would come under pressure for more aggressive easing.


The dollar eased 0.1 percent against a basket of key currencies <.dxy>, helping to underpin dollar-based commodities.


U.S. crude futures rose 0.3 percent to $88.03 a barrel and Brent was up 0.2 percent to $111.09.


Spot gold was up 0.1 percent to $1,749.65 an ounce, just below a six-week high of $1,754.10 hit on Friday.


London copper hit a near one-month high of $7,821.50 a metric ton (1.1023 tons) as the Greek debt deal added to confidence over copper demand after recent positive data from its top consumer China.


Sentiment may be further underpinned by a report saying China has approved construction of two city subway projects worth 49 billion yuan ($7.87 billion), adding to the list of recent railway project approvals aimed at boosting growth in the world's second-biggest economy.


In another possible sign that the economy is regaining traction, China's industrial profits in October were up 20.5 percent from a year earlier, accelerating from 7.8 percent growth in September.


Asian credit markets firmed slightly, narrowing the spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index by 1 basis point.


(Additional reporting by Victoria Thieberger in Melbourne; Editing by Edwina Gibbs & Kim Coghill)


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After His Vulgar Assault on Jenny Johnson, Chris Brown Quits Twitter












Chris Brown is really bad at public relations. The 23-year-old rapper went on a memorably vulgar tirade against comedian Jenny Johnson on Sunday and apparently realized soon thereafter that it was a bad idea, because he scrambled to cover his tracks. But deleting tweets does not erase their previous existence and deactivating your Twitter account does not take away all of the bad things you did with it.


RELATED: The New York Times’s Bill Keller Riles Up Twitter












We’re getting ahead of ourselves, though. Did you hear about Chris Brown’s memorably vulgar tirade against comedian Jenny Johnson on Sunday? It was truly despicable. Johnson, if you haven’t heard of her, is pretty big on Twitter and pretty funny, too. She’s also deeply disapproving of Brown’s existence, more specifically his history of beating women. And she didn’t miss a chance to take a swipe at Brown on Sunday, when he complained about his appearance. “I look old as fuck! I’m only 23…” Brown tweeted. “ ”I know! Being a worthless piece of shit can really age a person.” Johnson replied.


RELATED: The Twitter Skirmish While You Were Sleeping Over #RomneyStrength


Then things got ugly. In a series of tweets, Brown told Johnson to suck his dick, threatened to fart on her, threatened to shit and called her a “ho” about seven times. After tweeting — and this is a direct quote — “mom says hello… She told me not to shart in ur mouth, wanted me to shit right on the retina, ….#pinkeye” Brown tweeted, “Just ask Rihanna if she mad??????” You can read the entire exchange here.


RELATED: Morning Twitter Meme: Journalists Tiring of Royal Wedding


Brown’s rant was not well received by the Twitter community or the media. Then again, at this point, it’s not like anybody expected more from Brown. This is the same guy that dressed up like a terrorist for Halloween. It’s unclear how or why, but within a couple hours of the blowback, Brown’s Twitter account was gone. We’ll let you know if we find out any more details. For now, we’re going with Eli Braden’s theory: “Chris Brown’s publicist finally figured out his Twitter password.”


Social Media News Headlines – Yahoo! News


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Tom Cruise Films Helicopter Scene in Empty Trafalgar Square















11/25/2012 at 05:15 PM EST







Tom Cruise in Trafalgar Square


FameFlynet


Back to work!

After spending Thanksgiving with daughter Suri, 6, Tom Cruise filmed scenes for the sci-fi action film All You Need Is Kill in London on Sunday.

The actor, who plays alien fighter Lt. Col. Bill Cage, landed in a helicopter in the middle of the usually bustling Trafalgar Square, which was shut down for the scene, in the heart of London.

Based on Hiroshi Sakurazaka's novel, the movie follows Cage as he battles the Mimics, a violent race of alien invaders, while stuck in a time loop.

Emily Blunt also stars in the film as Special Forces fighter Rita Vrataski, who according to Deadline.com, has destroyed more Mimics than anyone else on earth.

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AP PHOTOS: Simple surgery heals blind Indonesians

PADANG SIDEMPUAN, Indonesia (AP) — They came from the remotest parts of Indonesia, taking crowded overnight ferries and riding for hours in cars or buses — all in the hope that a simple, and free, surgical procedure would restore their eyesight.

Many patients were elderly and needed help to reach two hospitals in Sumatra where mass eye camps were held earlier this month by Nepalese surgeon Dr. Sanduk Ruit. During eight days, more than 1,400 cataracts were removed.

The patients camped out, sleeping side-by-side on military cots, eating donated food while fire trucks supplied water for showers and toilets. Many who had given up hope of seeing again left smiling after their bandages were removed.

"I've been blind for three years, and it's really bad," said Arlita Tobing, 65, whose sight was restored after the surgery. "I worked on someone's farm, but I couldn't work anymore."

Indonesia has one of the highest rates of blindness in the world, making it a target country for Ruit who travels throughout the developing world holding free mass eye camps while training doctors to perform the simple, stitch-free procedure he pioneered. He often visits hard-to-reach remote areas where health care is scarce and patients are poor. He believes that by teaching doctors how to perform his method of cataract removal, the rate of blindness can be reduced worldwide.

Cataracts are the leading cause of blindness globally, affecting about 20 million people who mostly live in poor countries, according to the World Health Organization.

"We get only one life, and that life is very short. I am blessed by God to have this opportunity," said Ruit, who runs the Tilganga Eye Center in Katmandu, Nepal. "The most important of that is training, taking the idea to other people."

During the recent camps, Ruit trained six doctors from Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore.

Here, in images, are scenes from the mobile eye camps:

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Asian shares edge higher on hopes for Greek deal

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares inched up on Monday on hopes that Greece can avoid a near-term bankruptcy, with the market focusing on a euro zone finance ministers meeting later in the day, but a regional Spanish vote favoring separatist parties capped gains.


U.S. stock futures were down 0.3 percent, suggesting a soft Wall Street open, and European shares were seen falling, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> to open down as much as 0.3 percent. <.l><.eu><.n/>


MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was up 0.2 percent to a two-week high.


It marked the sixth consecutive day of advances and comes after the euro and global shares climbed on Friday on expectations that an agreement will be reached soon to disburse aid for Greece, and after a rise in Germany's Ifo business climate index.


"There is optimism around in regards to the euro area's ability to achieve a deal on Greece," said Emma Lawson, senior currency strategist at the National Australia Bank.


But worries about the Spanish vote and the implications for Madrid's push for fiscal austerity helped the euro slip 0.1 percent to $1.2960, pulling back from a three-week high of $1.2991 reached on Friday.


Against the yen, however, the single currency hit a seven-month peak of 107.13.


The yen was near a 7-1/2-month low of 82.84 yen to the dollar hit last week. It has been weakening on expectations of further monetary policy easing with the likely advent of a new Japanese government next month.


The dollar <.dxy> inched up 0.1 percent, after falling to a three-week low of 80.128 against a basket of major currencies on Friday as risk appetite gained.


Australian shares <.axjo> rose 0.2 percent on gains in energy and mining stocks, but Hong Kong <.hsi> and Shanghai <.ssec> shares eased slightly.


Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> gained 0.8 percent after rising to a seven-month high earlier on Monday on views that a weaker yen will boost earnings for exporters. <.t/>


"Although some investors are cautious about the fast-paced gains in the Japanese market, they will likely stay buyers on the back of the improving trading environment in the global market," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager at SMBC Nikko Securities.


EUROPE HOLDS KEY


On Sunday, separatists in the Spanish region of Catalonia won an election but failed to get the resounding mandate they need to push convincingly for a referendum on independence.


The win heightens concerns about a potential negative impact on the Spanish economy and the country's finances, as Catalonia accounts for 20 percent of the economy and provides the most tax revenue to the central government.


"While the result helps tone down the risk of the government being forced to give more autonomy to Catalonia in its fiscal policy, the underlying discomfort the province may be feeling about its big fiscal burden may persist," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist at Barclays in Tokyo.


He added that the result may weigh on the euro more when trading starts in Europe, where the euro's liquidity is far larger.


On Friday, European shares posted their best weekly gain so far this year on hopes for Greece and Germany's solid Ifo data, which followed firmer manufacturing reports from China and the United States released earlier last week.


London copper edged down 0.1 percent to $7,769.75 a metric ton (1.1023 tons) after rising for two weeks in a row. While signs of economic recovery in top consumer China helped support prices, China's official purchasing manufacturers' index due later in the week will be awaited for more confirmation of the trend.


"A positive PMI number should help a little bit, but we have not seen any significant improvement in the real economy yet," said Beijing-based metals analyst Wan Ling of commodities research house CRU Group.


The Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index <.trjcrb>, a global commodities benchmark, rose to its highest close since October 23 on Friday -- its best weekly performance since mid-September with a 1.9 percent gain.


Spot gold eased 0.1 percent to $1,750.35 an ounce on Monday after rising above $1,750 for the first time in five weeks on Friday.


U.S. crude fell 0.5 percent to $87.88 a barrel and Brent eased 0.2 percent to $111.12.


Asian credit markets steadied, with the spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index barely moved from Friday levels.


(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa in Tokyo, Ian Chua in Sydney and Melanie Burton in Singapore; Editing by Edwina Gibbs & Kim Coghill)


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White House Presses for Drone Rule Book





WASHINGTON — Facing the possibility that President Obama might not win a second term, his administration accelerated work in the weeks before the election to develop explicit rules for the targeted killing of terrorists by unmanned drones, so that a new president would inherit clear standards and procedures, according to two administration officials.




The matter may have lost some urgency after Nov. 6. But with more than 300 drone strikes and some 2,500 people killed by the Central Intelligence Agency and the military since Mr. Obama first took office, the administration is still pushing to make the rules formal and resolve internal uncertainty and disagreement about exactly when lethal action is justified.


Mr. Obama and his advisers are still debating whether remote-control killing should be a measure of last resort against imminent threats to the United States, or a more flexible tool, available to help allied governments attack their enemies or to prevent militants from controlling territory.


Though publicly the administration presents a united front on the use of drones, behind the scenes there is longstanding tension. The Defense Department and the C.I.A. continue to press for greater latitude to carry out strikes; Justice Department and State Department officials, and the president’s counterterrorism adviser, John O. Brennan, have argued for restraint, officials involved in the discussions say.


More broadly, the administration’s legal reasoning has not persuaded many other countries that the strikes are acceptable under international law. For years before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the United States routinely condemned targeted killings of suspected terrorists by Israel, and most countries still object to such measures.


But since the first targeted killing by the United States in 2002, two administrations have taken the position that the United States is at war with Al Qaeda and its allies and can legally defend itself by striking its enemies wherever they are found.


Partly because United Nations officials know that the United States is setting a legal and ethical precedent for other countries developing armed drones, the U.N. plans to open a unit in Geneva early next year to investigate American drone strikes.


The attempt to write a formal rule book for targeted killing began last summer after news reports on the drone program, started under President George W. Bush and expanded by Mr. Obama, revealed some details of the president’s role in the shifting procedures for compiling “kill lists” and approving strikes. Though national security officials insist that the process is meticulous and lawful, the president and top aides believe it should be institutionalized, a course of action that seemed particularly urgent when it appeared that Mitt Romney might win the presidency.


“There was concern that the levers might no longer be in our hands,” said one official, speaking on condition of anonymity. With a continuing debate about the proper limits of drone strikes, Mr. Obama did not want to leave an “amorphous” program to his successor, the official said. The effort, which would have been rushed to completion by January had Mr. Romney won, will now be finished at a more leisurely pace, the official said.


Mr. Obama himself, in little-noticed remarks, has acknowledged that the legal governance of drone strikes is still a work in progress.


“One of the things we’ve got to do is put a legal architecture in place, and we need Congressional help in order to do that, to make sure that not only am I reined in but any president’s reined in terms of some of the decisions that we’re making,” Mr. Obama told Jon Stewart in an appearance on “The Daily Show” on Oct. 18.


In an interview with Mark Bowden for a new book on the killing of Osama bin Laden, “The Finish,” Mr. Obama said that “creating a legal structure, processes, with oversight checks on how we use unmanned weapons, is going to be a challenge for me and my successors for some time to come.”


The president expressed wariness of the powerful temptation drones pose to policy makers. “There’s a remoteness to it that makes it tempting to think that somehow we can, without any mess on our hands, solve vexing security problems,” he said.


Despite public remarks by Mr. Obama and his aides on the legal basis for targeted killing, the program remains officially classified. In court, fighting lawsuits filed by the American Civil Liberties Union and The New York Times seeking secret legal opinions on targeted killings, the government has refused even to acknowledge the existence of the drone program in Pakistan.


But by many accounts, there has been a significant shift in the nature of the targets. In the early years, most strikes were aimed at ranking leaders of Al Qaeda thought to be plotting to attack the United States. That is the purpose Mr. Obama has emphasized, saying in a CNN interview in September that drones were used to prevent “an operational plot against the United States” and counter “terrorist networks that target the United States.”


But for at least two years in Pakistan, partly because of the C.I.A.’s success in decimating Al Qaeda’s top ranks, most strikes have been directed at militants whose main battle is with the Pakistani authorities or who fight with the Taliban against American troops in Afghanistan.


In Yemen, some strikes apparently launched by the United States killed militants who were preparing to attack Yemeni military forces. Some of those killed were wearing suicide vests, according to Yemeni news reports.


“Unless they were about to get on a flight to New York to conduct an attack, they were not an imminent threat to the United States,” said Micah Zenko, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who is a critic of the strikes. “We don’t say that we’re the counterinsurgency air force of Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia, but we are.”


Then there is the matter of strikes against people whose identities are unknown. In an online video chat in January, Mr. Obama spoke of the strikes in Pakistan as “a targeted, focused effort at people who are on a list of active terrorists.” But for several years, first in Pakistan and later in Yemen, in addition to “personality strikes” against named terrorists, the C.I.A. and the military have carried out “signature strikes” against groups of suspected, unknown militants.


Originally that term was used to suggest the specific “signature” of a known high-level terrorist, such as his vehicle parked at a meeting place. But the word evolved to mean the “signature” of militants in general — for instance, young men toting arms in an area controlled by extremist groups. Such strikes have prompted the greatest conflict inside the Obama administration, with some officials questioning whether killing unidentified fighters is legally justified or worth the local backlash.


Many people inside and outside the government have argued for far greater candor about all of the strikes, saying excessive secrecy has prevented public debate in Congress or a full explanation of their rationale. Experts say the strikes are deeply unpopular both in Pakistan and Yemen, in part because of allegations of large numbers of civilian casualties, which American officials say are exaggerated.


Gregory D. Johnsen, author of “The Last Refuge: Yemen, Al Qaeda and America’s War in Arabia,” argues that the strike strategy is backfiring in Yemen. “In Yemen, Al Qaeda is actually expanding,” Mr. Johnsen said in a recent talk at the Brookings Institution, in part because of the backlash against the strikes.


Shuja Nawaz, a Pakistan-born analyst now at the Atlantic Council in Washington, said the United States should start making public a detailed account of the results of each strike, including any collateral deaths, in part to counter propaganda from jihadist groups. “This is a grand opportunity for the Obama administration to take the drones out of the shadows and to be open about their objectives,” he said.


But the administration appears to be a long way from embracing such openness. The draft rule book for drone strikes that has been passed among agencies over the last several months is so highly classified, officials said, that it is hand-carried from office to office rather than sent by e-mail.


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10 Adorable Animals Feeding Other Animals [VIDEOS]












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AP PHOTOS: Simple surgery heals blind Indonesians

PADANG SIDEMPUAN, Indonesia (AP) — They came from the remotest parts of Indonesia, taking crowded overnight ferries and riding for hours in cars or buses — all in the hope that a simple, and free, surgical procedure would restore their eyesight.

Many patients were elderly and needed help to reach two hospitals in Sumatra where mass eye camps were held earlier this month by Nepalese surgeon Dr. Sanduk Ruit. During eight days, more than 1,400 cataracts were removed.

The patients camped out, sleeping side-by-side on military cots, eating donated food while fire trucks supplied water for showers and toilets. Many who had given up hope of seeing again left smiling after their bandages were removed.

"I've been blind for three years, and it's really bad," said Arlita Tobing, 65, whose sight was restored after the surgery. "I worked on someone's farm, but I couldn't work anymore."

Indonesia has one of the highest rates of blindness in the world, making it a target country for Ruit who travels throughout the developing world holding free mass eye camps while training doctors to perform the simple, stitch-free procedure he pioneered. He often visits hard-to-reach remote areas where health care is scarce and patients are poor. He believes that by teaching doctors how to perform his method of cataract removal, the rate of blindness can be reduced worldwide.

Cataracts are the leading cause of blindness globally, affecting about 20 million people who mostly live in poor countries, according to the World Health Organization.

"We get only one life, and that life is very short. I am blessed by God to have this opportunity," said Ruit, who runs the Tilganga Eye Center in Katmandu, Nepal. "The most important of that is training, taking the idea to other people."

During the recent camps, Ruit trained six doctors from Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore.

Here, in images, are scenes from the mobile eye camps:

Read More..

Wall Street Week Ahead: Political wrangling to pinch market's nerves

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Volatility is the name of this game.


With the S&P 500 above 1,400 following five days of gains, traders will be hard pressed not to cash in on the advance at the first sign of trouble during negotiations over tax hikes and spending cuts that resume next week in Washington.


President Barack Obama and U.S. congressional leaders are expected to discuss ways to reduce the budget deficit and avoid the "fiscal cliff" of automatic tax increases and spending cuts in 2013 that could tip the economy into recession.


As politicians make their case, markets could react with wild swings.


The CBOE Volatility Index <.vix>, known as the VIX, Wall Street's favorite barometer of market anxiety that usually moves in an inverse relationship with the S&P 500, is in a long-term decline with its 200-day moving average at its lowest in five years. The VIX could spike if dealings in Washington begin to stall.


"If the fiscal cliff happens, a lot of major assets will be down on a short-term basis because of the fear factor and the chaos factor," said Yu-Dee Chang, chief trader and sole principal of ACE Investments in Virginia.


"So whatever you are in, you're going to lose some money unless you go long the VIX and short the market. The 'upside risk' there is some kind of grand bargain, and then the market goes crazy."


He set the chances of the economy going over the cliff at only about 5 percent.


Many in the market agree there will be some sort of agreement that will fuel a rally, but the road there will be full of political landmines as Democrats and Republicans dig in on positions defended during the recent election.


Liberals want tax increases on the wealthiest Americans while protecting progressive advances in healthcare, while conservatives make a case for deep cuts in programs for the poor and a widening of the tax base to raise revenues without lifting tax rates.


"Both parties will raise the stakes and the pressure on the opposing side, so the market is going to feel much more concerned," said Tim Leach, chief investment officer of U.S. Bank Wealth Management in San Francisco.


"The administration feels really confident at this point, or a little more than the Republican side of Congress may feel," he said. "But it's still a balanced-power Congress so neither side can feel that they can act with impunity."


THE MIDDLE EAST AND EUROPE


Tension in the Middle East and unresolved talks in Europe over aid for Greece could add to the uncertainty and volatility on Wall Street could surge, analysts say.


An Egypt-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into force late on Wednesday after a week of conflict, but it was broken with the shooting of a Palestinian man by Israeli soldiers, according to Palestine's foreign minister.


Buoyed by accolades from around the world for mediating the truce, Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi assumed sweeping powers, angering his opponents and prompting violent clashes in central Cairo and other cities on Friday.


"Those kinds of potential large-scale conflicts can certainly overwhelm some of the fundamental data here at home," said U.S. Bank's Leach.


"We are trying to keep in mind the idea that there are a lot of factors that are probably going to contribute to higher volatility."


On a brighter note for markets, Greece's finance minister said the International Monetary Fund has relaxed its debt-cutting target for Greece and a gap of only $13 billion remains to be filled for a vital aid installment to be paid.


Still, a deal has not been struck, and Greece is increasingly frustrated at its lenders, still squabbling over a deal to unlock fresh aid even though Athens has pushed through unpopular austerity cuts.


HOUSING DATA COULD CONFIRM RECOVERY


Next week is heavy on economic data, especially on the housing front. Some of the numbers have been affected by Superstorm Sandy, which hit the U.S. East Coast more than three weeks ago, killing more than 100 people in the United States alone and leaving billions of dollars in damages.


The housing data, though, could continue to confirm a rebound in the sector that is seen as a necessary step to unlock spending and lower the stubbornly high unemployment rate.


Tuesday's S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for September is expected to show the eighth straight month of increases, extending the longest continuous string of gains since prices were boosted by a homebuyer tax credit in 2009 and 2010.


New home sales for October, due on Wednesday, and October pending home sales data, due on Thursday, are also expected to show a stronger housing market.


Other data highlights next week include durable goods orders for October and consumer confidence for November on Tuesday and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index on Friday.


At Friday's close, the S&P 500 wrapped up its second-best week of the year with a 3.6 percent gain. Encouraging economic data next week could confirm that regardless of the ups and downs that the fiscal cliff could bring, the market's fundamentals are solid.


Jeff Morris, head of U.S. equities at Standard Life Investments in Boston, said that "it's kind of noise here" in terms of whether the market has spent "a few days up or down. It has made some solid gains over the course of the year as the housing recovery has come into view, and that's what's underpinning the market at these levels.


"I would caution against reading too much into the next few days."


(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: rodrigo.campos(at)thomsonreuters.com)


(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Tim Dobbyn and Jan Paschal)


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