Changing of the Guard: How Crash Cover-Up Altered China’s Succession





BEIJING — “Thank you. I’m well. Don’t worry,” read the post on a Chinese social networking site. The brief comment, published in June, appeared to come from Ling Gu, the 23-year-old son of a high-powered aide to China’s president, and it helped quash reports that he had been killed in a Ferrari crash after a night of partying.




It only later emerged that the message was a sham, posted by someone under Mr. Ling’s alias — almost three months after his death.


The ploy was one of many in a tangled effort to suppress news of the Ferrari crash that killed Mr. Ling and critically injured two young female passengers, one of whom later died. The outlines of the affair surfaced months ago, but it is now becoming clearer that the crash and the botched cover-up had more momentous consequences, altering the course of the Chinese Communist Party’s once-in-a-decade leadership succession last month.


China’s departing president, Hu Jintao, entered the summer in an apparently strong position after the disgrace of Bo Xilai, previously a rising member of a rival political network who was brought down when his wife was accused of murdering a British businessman. But Mr. Hu suffered a debilitating reversal of his own when party elders — led by his predecessor, Jiang Zemin — confronted him with allegations that Ling Jihua, his closest protégé and political fixer, had engineered the cover-up of his son’s death.


According to current and former officials, party elites, and others, the exposure helped tip the balance of difficult negotiations, hastening Mr. Hu’s decline; spurring the ascent of China’s new leader, Xi Jinping; and playing into the hands of Mr. Jiang, whose associates dominate the new seven-man leadership at the expense of candidates from Mr. Hu’s clique.


The case also shows how the profligate lifestyles of leaders’ relatives and friends can weigh heavily in backstage power tussles, especially as party skulduggery plays out under the intensifying glare of media.


Numerous party insiders provided information regarding the episode, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals from the authorities. Officials have investigated the aftermath of the car wreck, they say, including looking into accusations that a state oil company paid hush money to the families of the two women.


Under Mr. Hu, Mr. Ling had directed the leadership’s administrative center, the General Office, but was relegated to a less influential post in September, ahead of schedule. Last month, he failed to advance to the 25-person Politburo and lost his seat on the influential party secretariat.


Mr. Hu, who stepped down as party chief, immediately yielded his post as chairman of the military, meaning he will not retain power as Mr. Jiang did. “Hu was weakened even before leaving office,” said a midranking official in the Organization Department, the party’s personnel office.


Mr. Ling’s future remains unsettled, with party insiders saying that his case presents an early test of whether Mr. Xi intends to follow through on public promises to fight high-level corruption.


“He can decide whether to go after Ling Jihua or not,” said Wu Guoguang, a former top-level party speechwriter, now a political scientist at the University of Victoria in British Columbia. “Either way, this is a big card in Xi Jinping’s hand.”


Mr. Ling, 56, built his career in the Communist Youth League. At an early age, he secured the patronage of Mr. Hu, who led the Youth League in the early 1980s and brought Mr. Ling to the General Office in 1995. “Hu didn’t come with a lot of friends, but Ling was someone he knew he could trust,” said the Organization Department official. “Officials said that if Ling called, it was like Hu calling.”


Mr. Ling played a central role in moving Youth League veterans into high offices and undermining Mr. Hu’s adversaries. Mr. Ling also wielded leverage over Internet censorship of leaders’ affairs, and sought to use it to benefit his patron.


“Negative publicity, including untruths, about Xi Jinping were not suppressed the way publicity about Hu Jintao was,” said one associate of party leaders.


As his influence grew, Mr. Ling tried to keep a low profile. About a decade ago, his wife closed a software company she owned and formed a nonprofit foundation that incubates young entrepreneurs. The couple sent their son, Ling Gu, to an elite Beijing high school under an alias, Wang Ziyun. “Ling Jihua told his family not to damage his career,” a former Youth League colleague said. “But it seems it can’t be stopped.”


Still living under an alias, Ling Gu graduated from Peking University last year with an international relations degree and began graduate studies in education. One of his instructors said his performance plunged later in his undergraduate years. “I think there were too many lures, too much seduction,” he said.


Before dawn on March 18, a black Ferrari Spider speeding along Fourth Ring Road in Beijing ricocheted off a wall, struck a railing and cracked in two. Mr. Ling was killed instantly, and the two young Tibetan women with him were hospitalized with severe injuries. One died months later, and the other is recovering, party insiders said.


Ian Johnson and Edward Wong contributed reporting.



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Amazon launches Kindle content service for kids












NEW YORK (AP) — Amazon is launching a subscription service for children’s games, videos and books aimed at getting more kids to use its Kindle Fire tablet devices.


Amazon.com Inc. plans to announce Wednesday that the Kindle FreeTime Unlimited service will be available in the next few weeks as part of an automatic software update.












Amazon said subscribers will have access to “thousands” of pieces of content, though the company did not give a specific number. Kids will be able to watch, play and read any of the content available to them as many times as they want. Parents can set time limits, however.


The service, aimed at kids aged 3 to 8, will cost $ 4.99 per month for one child. It’ll cost $ 2.99 per child for members of Amazon Prime, the company’s premium shipping service. Amazon Prime costs $ 79 per year for free shipping of merchandise purchased in the company’s online store.


Family plans for up to six kids will cost $ 9.99 per month and $ 6.99 for Prime members.


The Kindle already allows for parental controls through its FreeTime service. Parents can set up profiles for up to six children and add time limits to control how long kids can spend reading, watching videos or using the Kindle altogether. With the content subscription service, kids can browse age-appropriate videos, games and books and pick what they want to see. They won’t be shown ads and will be prevented from accessing the Web or social media. Kids also won’t be able to make payments within applications.


Amazon is launching the service as competition heats up in the tablet market among Apple, Barnes & Noble, Microsoft and Samsung. Amazon’s strategy is to offer the Kindle at a relatively low price and make money selling the content.


Offering a subscription service aimed at kids helps set the Kindle apart from its many competitors.


“We hope that our devices are really, really attractive for families,” said Peter Larsen, vice president of Amazon’s Kindle business.


Gadgets News Headlines – Yahoo! News


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The Voice Reveals Top Four Contestants















12/04/2012 at 09:35 PM EST



The Voice"'s top six contestants were under double pressure Monday night when they had to sing two songs each. But there was even more stress at Tuesday's elimination.

"It went as well as it could have gone," Team Blake's Terry McDermott said on Monday of his performances of "I Want to Know What Love Is" and Rod Stewart's "Stay with Me." "There was a lot of pressure stripping a song down, but it worked to my advantage."

"I felt good," said Team Cee Lo's Trevin Hunte, who performed "Walking on Sunshine" and Jennifer Hudson's "And I Am Telling You (I'm Not Going)." "I'm confident. I feel like I've really grown. I'm definitely happy with my performance. I just want to see how America votes."

His chance came Tuesday when he and McDermott stood alongside competitors Nicholas David (Team Cee Lo), Cassadee Pope (Team Blake), Melanie Martinez and Amanda Brown (both Team Adam) to hear host Carson Daly reveal the voting results. Keep reading to find out ...

America saved McDermott, Hunte and Pope, but Martinez said goodbye to the competition for good. "I love all of you who have supported me," she said to her fans. "I'm just so grateful for you."

Brown also met the same fate, making David the final member of the top four.

The semi-final show airs Monday at 8:00 p.m. on NBC.

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Study: Drug coverage to vary under health law


WASHINGTON (AP) — A new study says basic prescription drug coverage could vary dramatically from state to state under President Barack Obama's health care overhaul.


That's because states get to set benefits for private health plans that will be offered starting in 2014 through new insurance exchanges.


The study out Tuesday from the market analysis firm Avalere Health found that some states will require coverage of virtually all FDA-approved drugs, while others will only require coverage of about half of medications.


Consumers will still have access to essential medications, but some may not have as much choice.


Connecticut, Virginia and Arizona will be among the states with the most generous coverage, while California, Minnesota and North Carolina will be among states with the most limited.


___


Online:


Avalere Health: http://tinyurl.com/d3b3hfv


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Wall Street slips as investors seek cliff progress

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks finished slightly lower in a quiet session on Tuesday as the back-and-forth wrangling over the "fiscal cliff" gave investors little reason to act.


Trading volume was light as legislators continue to negotiate a deal to avoid a $600 billion package of tax hikes and federal spending cuts that would begin January 1 and could push the economy into recession.


Just 5.86 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, below the year's daily average of 6.48 billion shares.


A key measure of investor anxiety has remained muted. The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX <.vix>, a gauge of market anxiety, was at 17.12, up 2.9 percent. It has not traded above 20 since July.


Optimism for progress was dented after remarks by President Barack Obama, who rejected a Republican proposal to resolve the crisis as "out of balance" and said any deal must include a rise in income tax rates on the wealthiest Americans.


"People don't know if what's going on is political posturing or real negotiations that represent progress," said Bernard Baumohl, managing director and chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, New Jersey.


Expectations of higher taxes on dividends beginning in 2013 have pushed many companies to pay special dividends this year or advance their next payback to investors. Coach became the latest to move up the date of its next dividend payment, and the news lifted shares of the upscale leather-goods maker earlier in the session. By the close, though, Coach was down 1.2 percent at $57.52.


One of the S&P 500's top sectors for the day was health care <.gspa>, considered a defensive group.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> fell 13.82 points, or 0.11 percent, to 12,951.78 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> dipped 2.41 points, or 0.17 percent, to 1,407.05. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> shed 5.51 points, or 0.18 percent, to close at 2,996.69.


The market has been sensitive to rhetoric from Washington, as a failure to reach an agreement could send the U.S. economy back into recession. Still, many expect a resolution to be found, which could extend the S&P 500's rally of 12 percent so far this year.


Differences within the Republican Party came to the fore on Tuesday as one senator opposed to raising taxes lashed out at Republican House Speaker John Boehner for proposing to increase revenue by closing some tax loopholes.


Congressional Republicans recently proposed steep spending cuts to bring down the budget deficit, but gave no ground on Obama's call to raise tax rates on the rich. The proposal was quickly dismissed by the White House.


"We're on hold trying to figure it out, but investors are stressed since they have to make decisions soon about how to proceed with their investments if taxes are indeed going up. We could see a real pick-up in volume over the next week or so," Baumohl said.


Netflix Inc was the S&P 500's top percentage gainer, advancing 14 percent to $86.65 after Walt Disney Co agreed to give the company exclusive TV distribution rights to its movies, starting in 2016.


Intel Corp shares rose 2.2 percent to $19.97 after the top chipmaker sold $6 billion in bonds to fund stock buybacks and other business activities.


Darden Restaurants Inc shares plunged 9.6 percent to $47.40 as the S&P 500's worst performer after the company warned that its latest quarter would miss expectations after unsuccessful promotions led to a decline in sales at its Olive Garden, Red Lobster and LongHorn Steakhouse chains.


In contrast, Big Lots Inc surged 11.5 percent to $31.27 after the close-out retailer posted a smaller-than-expected loss and boosted its full-year adjusted earnings forecast.


MetroPCS Communications shares tumbled 7.5 percent to $9.96 after Sprint Nextel appeared unlikely to make a counter-offer for the wireless service provider.


Almost half of the stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange closed lower, while 50 percent of Nasdaq-listed shares closed in negative territory.


After the closing bell, Pandora Media Inc


shares plunged 23 percent after the company reported its third-quarter results.

(Editing by Jan Paschal)

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Iraq’s Latest Crisis Is a Standoff With Northern Kurds


Azad Lashkari/Reuters


Officials in Baghdad, including American diplomats, are trying to mediate a dispute with the Kurdish government in the north.







BAGHDAD — It was just the sort of episode that observers have long worried could provoke a serious conflict: when federal police agents sought to arrest a Kurdish man last month in the city of Tuz Khurmato in the Kurdish north of the country, a gunfight ensued with security men loyal to the Kurdish regional government.









Azad Lashkari/Reuters

Kurdish security forces, called the Peshmerga, have been in a standoff with the Iraqi Army near Kirkuk, a northern city claimed by Arabs and Kurds.






When the bullets stopped flying, a civilian bystander was dead and at least eight others were wounded.


In response, the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, rushed troop reinforcements to the area, and Masoud Barzani, the president of Iraq’s semiautonomous northern Kurdish region, dispatched his own soldiers, known as the Peshmerga, and the forces remain there in a tense standoff.


Almost a year after the departure of the United States military closed a painful chapter in the histories of both nations, Iraq finds itself in a familiar position: full-blown crisis mode, this time with two standing armies, one loyal to the central government in Baghdad and the other commanded by the Kurdish regional government in the north, staring at each other through gun sights, as officials in Baghdad, including American diplomats and an American general, try to mediate.


Like bookends, Iraq is closing the year just as it began, with a major confrontation that has exposed sectarian and ethnic rifts that hundreds of billions of American dollars and thousands of lives have not reconciled. At the outset of the year, it was the sectarian divide between Shiites and Sunnis that was on vivid display when the government of Mr. Maliki, a Shiite, issued an arrest warrant on terrorism charges against the Sunni vice president, Tariq al-Hashemi.


“The year started with the warrant against Hashemi and is ending with tanks on the edge of the Kurdish mountains,” said Sarmed al-Tai, a columnist for the newspaper Al Mada, which ran a story on Sunday on the anniversary of the American military’s departure, describing the exit as “leaving a large vacuum and a significant deterioration of the national partnership.”


As American troops left at the end of 2011, Mr. Maliki sent tanks to surround Mr. Hashemi’s home in the Green Zone of Baghdad. An arrest warrant led to Mr. Hashemi’s self-imposed exile, first in the Kurdish north and then Turkey; a trial in absentia followed, then the handing down of not one but two death sentences. Mr. Hashemi now lives in a suburban high-rise apartment in Istanbul, where he is protected by Turkish guards and remains defiant.


“Legally, I am still a vice president,” he said in a recent interview, adding, “I do have a lot of time to look after the future of my country.”


The latest crisis is an ethnic one, between Kurds and Arabs, and the consequences are potentially more serious because the Kurds, in contrast to the Sunni Arabs, enjoy a measure of autonomy in the north, control their own security forces and have longstanding ambitions for independence.


Tuz Khurmato, the city where the clash occurred, is of mixed ethnicity, where Turkmens, Arabs and Kurds compete for power. It lies in a region around the city of Kirkuk, an area of vast potential oil wealth that is at the center of a longstanding power struggle between Kurds and Arabs. As part of his brutal rule, Saddam Hussein moved tens of thousands of Arabs into the area, to dilute what was historically a Kurdish stronghold. After his fall, thousands of displaced Kurds demanded the right to return to the homes they had been driven from, creating tensions that have yet to subside.


The latest crisis began after Mr. Maliki sought to consolidate his control over security in Kirkuk, where Kurdish and Iraqi forces have shared responsibility for security, and it reached a critical stage after the gunfight.


“This is a red line for the Kurds,” said Joost R. Hiltermann, an Iraq expert at the International Crisis Group. “Maliki is essentially taking control of the police. And the Kurds will never give up the city.”


Efforts at mediation, backed by the Americans, have so far failed to reach resolution. On Monday, Mr. Maliki and Mr. Barzani sent more troops to the area, with each side accusing the other of doing so first. Mr. Maliki warned the Kurds of the “seriousness of their behavior” and warned of its “consequences.” A spokesman for the Peshmerga said, “Anything is possible.”


Tim Arango reported from Baghdad, and Duraid Adnan from Baghdad and Kirkuk, Iraq.



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PHOTO: See Molly Mesnick's Baby Belly

Jason and Molly Mesnick Pregnant: Baby Bump Photo
Noah Graham


Happy holidays! Celebrities gathered to celebrate the season Saturday, attending the Second Annual Santa’s Secret Workshop in West Hollywood, Calif. Presented by Bill Horn and Scout Masterson and held at the Andaz Hotel, the event benefitted L.A. Family Housing.


Among the revelers: Bachelor alums Jason and Molly Mesnick — whose first child together is due in March — attending their first event since announcing the happy news.


“I’m just about six months and feeling really good,” Molly tells PEOPLE.


“I’m at a perfect stage now so I’m trying to get as much done around the house as I possibly can while I have the energy.”

Also in attendance? Tori Spelling, Malin Akerman, Tiffani Thiessen, Ali LandryDavid Boreanaz, Marla Sokoloff, Kaitlin Olson and Rob McElhenney, Angela Bassett, Ian Ziering, Amanda Righetti, Marshall and Jamie Anne Allman, Kimberly Van Der Beek, Spencer Grammer and more.


Guests enjoyed manicures from Mom.me, cookie decorating with Jenny Cookies, photos with Santa from HP, create-a-card with Snapfish.com, and a craft bar from Jo-Ann Fabrics and Crafts.


Styled by Sybarite Designs, the event featured companies such as  SodaStream, Corolle, Stokke, Orbit Baby, Ergo Baby, Teddy Needs a Bath, Funktion, Numi Numi Design, Ju-Ju-Be, Innobaby and Joovy showcasing their latest products — be sure to enter this week’s giveaway for a chance to win them all!


Tori Spelling
Noah Graham


It was a family affair for Tori Spelling, who brought the whole gang for their first public event since 3-month-old Finn‘s birth in August.


Joining the actress, husband Dean McDermott and their newborn are Hattie, 13 months, Stella, 4, and Liam, 5½.


“I’m not going to lie. It’s a little crazy. It’s hard work,” Spelling tells PEOPLE.


“I think three was safe. Four tips you over the edge a little bit. Maybe it’s because they’re 10 months apart — but we’re so blessed. It keeps you on your toes.”


Malin Akerman
Noah Graham


With her first child on the way in April, Malin Akerman was all smiles at the event, posing with her growing belly.


“I’m feeling great,” the actress tells PEOPLE. “I’m closing in on five months now so it’s getting more and more exciting as time goes by.”


Tiffani Thiessen
Noah Graham


White Collar star Tiffani Thiessen gave 2-year-old daughter Harper Renn a leg up at the event.


On the Landry-Monteverde family’s list? Meeting Santa! PEOPLE.com blogger Ali Landry held 13-month-old son Marcelo Alejandro while husband Alejandro Monteverde snuggled in behind 5-year-old daughter Estela Ines.


Ali Landry
Noah Graham


Amanda Righetti
Tiffany Rose/WireImage


Ravishing redhead Amanda Righetti showed off her growing belly at the event — The Mentalist star is due this winter with her first child.


David Boreanaz
Noah Graham


No Bones about it – David Boreanaz‘s children look like him! The actor and wife Jaime Bergman brought kids Jaden, 10, and Bella, 3, to meet Santa.


Always Sunny in Philadelphia stars Kaitlin Olson and Rob McElhenney brought their elder son Axel, 2, to the event, but little Leo, 7 months, sat this one out.


Kaitlin Olson
Tiffany Rose/WireImage


Angela Bassett
Noah Graham


Meeting Santa was twice as nice for Angela Bassett and Courtney B. Vance, who brought along their 6-year-old twins Bronwyn Golden and Slater Josiah (peace out, dude).


Kimberly Van Der Beek
Tiffany Rose/WireImage


Who cares about photos — it’s time for a snack! PEOPLE.com blogger Kimberly Van Der Beek gives 2-year-old daughter Olivia (plus her doll!) a lift.


Picture perfect! Ian Ziering gets daughter Mia, 19 months, in the frame while enjoying the craft table. The actor and wife Erin expect their second child in May.


Ian Ziering
Meagan Reidinger


Marla Sokoloff
Meagan Reidinger


With a baby doll in tow, PEOPLE.com blogger Marla Sokoloff and her little lady, 9-month-old Elliotte, check out the event.


Spencer Grammer arrived with her main men — husband James Hesketh and their son, 13-month-old Emmett.


Spencer Grammer
Tiffany Rose/WireImage


Marshall and Jamie Ann Allman
Tiffany Rose/WireImage


The event was a baby bump debut for Marshall and Jamie Anne Allman as well — the True Blood and Killing stars just announced that they’re expanding their family — by two. Twins are on the way this spring!


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Fossil fuel subsidies in focus at climate talks

DOHA, Qatar (AP) — Hassan al-Kubaisi considers it a gift from above that drivers in oil- and gas-rich Qatar only have to pay $1 per gallon at the pump.

"Thank God that our country is an oil producer and the price of gasoline is one of the lowest," al-Kubaisi said, filling up his Toyota Land Cruiser at a gas station in Doha. "God has given us a blessing."

To those looking for a global response to climate change, it's more like a curse.

Qatar — the host of U.N. climate talks that entered their final week Monday — is among dozens of countries that keep gas prices artificially low through subsidies that exceeded $500 billion globally last year. Renewable energy worldwide received six times less support — an imbalance that is just starting to earn attention in the divisive negotiations on curbing the carbon emissions blamed for heating the planet.

"We need to stop funding the problem, and start funding the solution," said Steve Kretzmann, of Oil Change International, an advocacy group for clean energy.

His group presented research Monday showing that in addition to the fuel subsidies in developing countries, rich nations in 2011 gave more than $58 billion in tax breaks and other production subsidies to the fossil fuel industry. The U.S. figure was $13 billion.

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has calculated that removing fossil fuel subsidies could reduce carbon emissions by more than 10 percent by 2050.

Yet the argument is just recently gaining traction in climate negotiations, which in two decades have failed to halt the rising temperatures that are melting Arctic ice, raising sea levels and shifting weather patterns with impacts on droughts and floods.

In Doha, the talks have been slowed by wrangling over financial aid to help poor countries cope with global warming and how to divide carbon emissions rights until 2020 when a new planned climate treaty is supposed to enter force. Calls are now intensifying to include fossil fuel subsidies as a key part of the discussion.

"I think it is manifestly clear ... that this is a massive missing piece of the climate change jigsaw puzzle," said Tim Groser, New Zealand's minister for climate change.

He is spearheading an initiative backed by Scandinavian countries and some developing countries to put fuel subsidies on the agenda in various forums, citing the U.N. talks as a "natural home" for the debate.

The G-20 called for their elimination in 2009, and the issue also came up at the U.N. earth summit in Rio de Janeiro earlier this year. Frustrated that not much has happened since, European Union climate commissioner Connie Hedegaard said Monday she planned to raise the issue with environment ministers on the sidelines of the talks in Doha.

Many developing countries are positive toward phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, not just to protect the climate but to balance budgets. Subsidies introduced as a form of welfare benefit decades ago have become an increasing burden to many countries as oil prices soar.

"We are reviewing the subsidy periodically in the context of the total economy for Qatar," the tiny Persian gulf country's energy minister, Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada, told reporters Monday.

Qatar's National Development Strategy 2011-2016 states it more bluntly, saying fuel subsides are "at odds with the aspirations" and sustainability objectives of the wealthy emirate.

The problem is that getting rid of them comes with a heavy political price.

When Jordan raised fuel prices last month, angry crowds poured into the streets, torching police cars, government offices and private banks in the most sustained protests to hit the country since the start of the Arab unrest. One person was killed and 75 others were injured in the violence.

Nigeria, Indonesia, India and Sudan have also seen violent protests this year as governments tried to bring fuel prices closer to market rates.

Iran has used a phased approach to lift fuel subsidies over the past several years, but its pump prices remain among the cheapest in the world.

"People perceive it as something that the government is taking away from them," said Kretzmann. "The trick is we need to do it in a way that doesn't harm the poor."

The International Energy Agency found in 2010 that fuel subsidies are not an effective measure against poverty because only 8 percent of such subsidies reached the bottom 20 percent of income earners.

The IEA, which only looked at consumption subsidies, this year said they "remain most prevalent in the Middle East and North Africa, where momentum toward their reform appears to have been lost."

In the U.S., environmental groups say fossil fuel subsidies include tax breaks, the foreign tax credit and the credit for production of nonconventional fuels.

Industry groups, like the Independent Petroleum Association of America, are against removing such support, saying that would harm smaller companies, rather than the big oil giants.

In Doha, Mohammed Adow, a climate activist with Christian Aid, called all fuel subsidies "reckless and dangerous," but described removing subsidies on the production side as "low-hanging fruit" for governments if they are serious about dealing with climate change.

"It's going to oil and coal companies that don't need it in the first place," he said.

___

Associated Press writers Abdullah Rebhy in Doha, Qatar, and Brian Murphy in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed to this report

____

Karl Ritter can be reached at www.twitter.com/karl_ritter

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Asian shares slip off nine-month high on weak U.S. data

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian shares slipped on Tuesday after a plunge in U.S. manufacturing activity hit Wall Street stocks and the dollar, while the euro hovered near a six-week high on optimism over Greece's plan to buy back debt.


Declines in Asian stock markets suggested caution setting in after gains in recent weeks, with investors reluctant to chase shares higher amid continued gridlock in the U.S. Congress over proposals to avert the so-called fiscal cliff - $600 billion worth of tax increases and spending cuts that will be automatically triggered in early 2013.


European shares were expected to open lower, U.S. stock index futures eased and riskier assets such as commodities were also hit, with oil, copper and gold all losing ground.


"Oil markets are starting to come off on the weaker-than-expected manufacturing data and the fact that the U.S. economic outlook remains unclear," said Natalie Rampono, commodity strategist at ANZ in Sydney.


"We are also seeing mixed headlines on the fiscal cliff negotiations, so markets have already taken on a cautious outlook on that account."


MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> fell 0.2 percent, backing away from a nine-month high reached on Monday.


Australian shares <.axjo> eased 0.6 percent, while Japan's benchmark Nikkei share average fell 0.3 percent. <.ax><.t/>


Financial bookmakers called London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> and Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> to open down 0.2-0.3 percent, and S&P 500 futures slipped 0.2 percent.


Global share indexes had risen on Monday after manufacturing surveys showed signs of a recovery, albeit an uneven one, in China's economy and a slower contraction in Europe. But sentiment toward equities soured after data revealed U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly contracted in November to its lowest level in more than three years.


The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its index of national factory activity fell to 49.5 in November, the weakest since July 2009, as companies worried about whether lawmakers in Washington could reach a budget deal in time to avert a fiscal crisis that may lead to a recession.


Heading into next week, even a hint of progress in the fiscal cliff negotiations could spawn a modest rally, said Vishnu Varathan, regional economist in Singapore for Mizuho Corporate Bank.


"Overall the euro zone noises are coming out positive and I don't see any turning around there. The only real deal-breaker, whatever will send the dollar spiking up and risk really off the table, will be if there is a complete breakdown in the Congress negotiations," he said.


"Right now there is some disappointment here and there, but overall still the consensus is that negotiations will result in some kind of acceptable compromise," Varathan said.


RBA CUTS


The Australian dollar recovered from initial weakness on Tuesday after a widely expected interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The rate was trimmed by 25 basis points to 3.0 percent, matching the previous record low.


The RBA said the full impact of rate cuts in the past had yet to be felt, and that recent data confirmed the peak in resource investment was approaching.


The Aussie rose 0.2 percent on the day and last traded at $1.0440, not far from a two-month peak of $1.0491 touched last week.


The euro was flat around $1.3060, hovering near the previous day's high of $1.3076, the single currency's strongest level in about six weeks.


The euro gained as Greek bonds rallied on Monday after Athens announced better-than-expected terms for its planned debt buy-back, boosting chances it will succeed and lead to the release of fresh aid funds.


The U.S. fiscal cliff issue remained in the minds of many investors, underpinning the Treasury market, where benchmark 10-year yields held steady in Asian trading around 1.628 percent.


Brent crude slipped 0.3 percent to around $110.60 a barrel and gold fell nearly 1 percent towards $1,700 an ounce. Copper fell from the first time in four sessions, coming off a six-week high reached on Monday to drop below $8,000 a metric ton (1.1023 tons).


The White House dismissed a proposal from congressional Republicans on Monday that included tax reforms and spending cuts, saying it did not meet President Barack Obama's pledge to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans.


The Republicans proposed overhauling the U.S. tax code to raise $800 billion in new revenue over 10 years. Obama's opening bid, outlined last Friday, seeks $1.6 trillion in new revenue by allowing the expiry of tax cuts enacted under President George W. Bush for the top two tax brackets.


"Now that the both sides have put out their plans on the table, we can say at least the negotiation is starting. But the way it looks, it will be difficult to get any deal by the second week of December. Probably it's going to take until the third week," said Tomoaki Shishido, fixed income analyst at Nomura Securities.


(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa in Tokyo and Vidya Ranganathan, Ramya Venugopal and Alex Richardson in Singapore; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)


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Letter From Washington: The Counties That Cost Romney the Election







WASHINGTON — When it comes to presidential politics in Pennsylvania, Republicans are like the comic strip character Charlie Brown, who prepares to kick a football, only to have it pulled back every time by his pal Lucy.




This time, it was Mitt Romney who was tempted to go for the prize, and his camp poured $10 million into Pennsylvania in the closing weeks of the U.S. presidential campaign. He lost by more than five points in that state, suffering the same fate as every one of his party’s nominees in the previous five presidential elections.


To understand why, look at two suburban counties near Philadelphia: Delaware, a middle-class enclave, and Montgomery, a more affluent area. Republicans win many of the local offices in Montgomery and Delaware, and until a few decades ago, so did the party’s presidential nominees. This November, President Barack Obama carried both counties by about 60,000 votes.


Montgomery is Pennsylvania’s third most populous county and Delaware its fifth; both are growing and becoming more diverse. The residents are not Mr. Romney’s 47 percent — those he called takers who rely on government largess — they just do not like the current brand of national Republicanism.


Pennsylvania will remain relatively blue in presidential politics until Republicans can compete in these counties.


This state of affairs is replicated in places that really were swing states, Virginia and Colorado for example.


In Virginia, Prince William and Loudoun counties are Washington exurbs that Mr. Obama carried in 2008, that went for George W. Bush in 2004 and were won decisively by the Republican governor, Bob McDonnell, three years ago. Four days before the election this year, Mr. McDonnell predicted that Mr. Romney would win the counties.


Instead, Mr. Obama carried Prince William, the third most populous county in the state, by 16 percent, or more than 28,000 votes. He won a narrower, but clear, victory in Loudoun, which before 2008 had not voted for a Democratic president since 1964 and where, 20 years earlier, George H.W. Bush won by a margin of more than two to one.


These two counties, although different, share important political characteristics. They are fast-growing — Prince William’s population has quadrupled over the past 40 years and Loudoun’s has grown tenfold — affluent and diversifying with a mix of Latinos, blacks and Asians. In local races, they favor Republicans; the national patterns are going the other way.


The picture is similar in Colorado, particularly in Arapahoe County, to the east of Denver, the state’s third most populous, and to the west, Jefferson County, which casts more votes than any other. Like their Virginia counterparts, these counties are fast-growing and comparatively well off. They shape close elections.


Arapahoe is more diverse, with more minorities, and tilts more Democratic. Mr. Obama carried it on Nov. 6 by almost 10 points, more than a tilt.


Jefferson is typical of large, growing suburbs with a range of voters from upper income to working class. “It mirrors in every election, Colorado,” said Craig Hughes, an influential Democratic consultant there. “If you want to carry the state, you carry Jefferson.” Mr. Obama won it by almost five points.


It is also instructive, in a slightly different way, to look at a few big counties in Florida and Ohio, the mothers of all battleground states.


In Florida, it is Hillsborough County, consisting of Tampa and its environs. It is the fourth most populous county in the state and the best bellwether: It has voted the same as the rest of the state in every presidential contest since John F. Kennedy won in 1960.


Before 2008, Hillsborough had gone Republican in six of the seven preceding presidential elections. It went for Mr. Obama by about seven points four years ago and by a similar margin this year.


“The Democrats’ grass-roots organization bringing minorities and young college students to vote was the difference,” said Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida.


In Ohio, it was Hamilton County, which includes Cincinnati and suburbs. Ohio is a diverse state, and Hamilton County is a microcosm of that diversity: old-line Republicans, who used to dominate, plus young professionals and racial minorities. It was carried by George W. Bush in 2004 and Mr. Obama in 2008 and 2012.


In no place was the ground game or infrastructure battle joined more forcefully, on both sides. Mr. Obama almost matched his 2008 margin, carrying the county by about 20,000 votes. In such a pitched battle, there are lots of explanations.


Alex Triantafilou, the energetic Republican chairman for Hamilton County, worries that among the “independent swing voter, the 35- to 45-year-old female whose dad was a Republican,” and among young professionals, “we just didn’t do as well as we should have.”


In 2012, Mr. Obama was a stronger candidate with a superior organization. Republicans are in dangerous disfavor with minorities and young voters. The party’s problems run deeper, as these eight bellwether counties across the United States illustrate.


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